Friday Fright

I had a most unsettling dream. I dreamt I was on a passenger jet, on it and not in the passenger cabin. I was jumping from one surface to another while the plane was in flight. Two or three people were watching me and after I had made a few terrifying jumps one of them said I wasn’t jumping correctly. I think that’s when I woke up.

I know, of course, given the temperature and lack of oxygen I could not survive at 30,000+ feet for long. Still, this was a dream (maybe nightmare is a more accurate description) so reality was suspended. I suppose many people have such dreams, but most probably don’t remember them. Whether it’s a remnant from the days when I still had total recall or the fact that I write about them in the blog, I seem to remember more than my share of my bad dreams.

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I spent more than a half hour yesterday with my primary care physician, Dr. H. I am lucky that he is my doctor. After reviewing my most recent lab work, asking me questions and doing an exam he declared me to be in very good health.

He did say that boredom and depression are often the same phenomenon and advised me to widen my view in terms of finding activities to keep me busy. He also said that he knows retired people who do not enjoy not working as they feel as if they have no purpose. The health of such people can spiral downward very quickly.

Dr. H also told me of a recent study that found that people 65 and older who take 4,000+ I.U. of Vitamin D every day have a higher chance of dying from “all causes.” I assume that means endogenous physiological causes and does not include accidents, but I could be wrong.

Since the outbreak of the damn virus I have been taking 5,000 I.U. of Vitamin D daily, which is why my doctor mentioned the study. I am not yet 65, but I will reduce my dosage significantly although not to zero.

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This CNBC article is about the views of Nobel Prize winning economist Richard Thaler. Here is some of what he said:

“I don’t see anything that resembles a recession. We have record low unemployment, record high vacancies. That looks like a strong economy. The economy is growing, it’s just growing slightly less fast than prices. And that means real GDP fell a little bit, but I think it’s just funny to call that a recession. It’s not like any recession we’ve seen in my rather long lifetime.”

News organizations want people to click on Internet links and to watch their TV programs. Good news does not, and has never, attracted many viewers. Kudos to CNBC for sharing the “contrarian” views of someone who is far more informed than most about the economy. No, I am not a partisan of the Democratic Party nor a fan of the current President. I believe in facts and well-informed analysis over blind adherence to ideology.

It is true that the 3-month/10-year yield spread on US Treasuries is close to inverting reaching just .15% yesterday compared to 1.11% just seven weeks ago. (Inverting would mean the 3-month yield is higher than the 10-year.) That is the spread, not the 2-year/10-year, that the New York Fed uses in a model to predict recessions two to six quarters out.

I do think a recession is likely although I don’t think it will become apparent until the first quarter of next year. I also don’t think it will be severe, but will be more than a technical recession. That’s my 2¢.

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